Cost-effectiveness of a radio intervention to stimulate early childhood development: protocol for an economic evaluation of the SUNRISE trial in Burkina Faso.

INTRODUCTION: Approximately 250 million children under 5 years of age are at risk of poor development in low-income and middle-income countries. However, existing early childhood development (ECD) interventions can be expensive, labour intensive and challenging to deliver at scale. Mass media may offer an alternative approach to ECD intervention. This protocol describes the planned economic evaluation of a cluster-randomised controlled trial of a radio campaign promoting responsive caregiving and opportunities for early learning during the first 3 years of life in rural Burkina Faso (SUNRISE trial). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The economic evaluation of the SUNRISE trial will be conducted as a within-trial analysis from the provider's perspective. Incremental costs and health outcomes of the radio campaign will be compared with standard broadcasting (ie, 'do nothing' comparator). All costs associated with creating and broadcasting the radio campaign during intervention start-up and implementation will be captured. The cost per child under 3 years old reached by the intervention will be calculated. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios will be calculated for the trial's primary outcome (ie, incremental cost per SD of cognitive gain). A cost-consequence analysis will also be presented, whereby all relevant costs and outcomes are tabulated. Finally, an analysis will be conducted to assess the equity impact of the intervention. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The SUNRISE trial has ethical approval from the ethics committees of the Ministry of Health, Burkina Faso, University College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The results of the economic evaluation will be disseminated in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at a relevant international conference. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The SUNRISE trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov on 19 April 2019 (identifier: NCT05335395).

Therapeutic potential of IL6R blockade for the treatment of sepsis and sepsis-related death: A Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is characterised by dysregulated, life-threatening immune responses, which are thought to be driven by cytokines such as interleukin 6 (IL-6). Genetic variants in IL6R known to down-regulate IL-6 signalling are associated with improved Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes, a finding later confirmed in randomised trials of IL-6 receptor antagonists (IL6RAs). We hypothesised that blockade of IL6R could also improve outcomes in sepsis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in and near IL6R to evaluate the likely causal effects of IL6R blockade on sepsis (primary outcome), sepsis severity, other infections, and COVID-19 (secondary outcomes). We weighted SNPs by their effect on CRP and combined results across them in inverse variance weighted meta-analysis, proxying the effect of IL6RA. Our outcomes were measured in UK Biobank, FinnGen, the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (HGI), and the GenOSept and GainS consortium. We performed several sensitivity analyses to test assumptions of our methods, including utilising variants around CRP and gp130 in a similar analysis. In the UK Biobank cohort (N = 486,484, including 11,643 with sepsis), IL6R blockade was associated with a decreased risk of our primary outcome, sepsis (odds ratio (OR) = 0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66 to 0.96, per unit of natural log-transformed CRP decrease). The size of this effect increased with severity, with larger effects on 28-day sepsis mortality (OR = 0.74; 95% CI 0.47 to 1.15); critical care admission with sepsis (OR = 0.48, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.78) and critical care death with sepsis (OR = 0.37, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.98). Similar associations were seen with severe respiratory infection: OR for pneumonia in critical care 0.69 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.97) and for sepsis survival in critical care (OR = 0.22; 95% CI 0.04 to 1.31) in the GainS and GenOSept consortium, although this result had a large degree of imprecision. We also confirm the previously reported protective effect of IL6R blockade on severe COVID-19 (OR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.84) in the COVID-19 HGI, which was of similar magnitude to that seen in sepsis. Sensitivity analyses did not alter our primary results. These results are subject to the limitations and assumptions of MR, which in this case reflects interpretation of these SNP effects as causally acting through blockade of IL6R, and reflect lifetime exposure to IL6R blockade, rather than the effect of therapeutic IL6R blockade. CONCLUSIONS: IL6R blockade is causally associated with reduced incidence of sepsis. Similar but imprecisely estimated results supported a causal effect also on sepsis related mortality and critical care admission with sepsis. These effects are comparable in size to the effect seen in severe COVID-19, where IL-6 receptor antagonists were shown to improve survival. These data suggest that a randomised trial of IL-6 receptor antagonists in sepsis should be considered.

Effects of general and central adiposity on circulating lipoprotein, lipid, and metabolite levels in UK Biobank: A multivariable Mendelian randomization study.

Background: The direct effects of general adiposity (body mass index (BMI)) and central adiposity (waist-to-hip-ratio (WHR)) on circulating lipoproteins, lipids, and metabolites are unknown. Methods: We used new metabolic data from UK Biobank (N=109,532, a five-fold higher N over previous studies). EDTA-plasma was used to quantify 249 traits with nuclear-magnetic-resonance spectroscopy including subclass-specific lipoprotein concentrations and lipid content, plus pre-glycemic and inflammatory metabolites. We used univariable and multivariable two-stage least-squares regression models with genetic risk scores for BMI and WHR as instruments to estimate total (unadjusted) and direct (mutually-adjusted) effects of BMI and WHR on metabolic traits; plus effects on statin use and interaction by sex, statin use, and age (proxy for medication use). Findings: Higher BMI decreased apolipoprotein B and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) before and after WHR-adjustment, whilst BMI increased triglycerides only before WHR-adjustment. These effects of WHR were larger and BMI-independent. Direct effects differed markedly by sex, e.g., triglycerides increased only with BMI among men, and only with WHR among women. Adiposity measures increased statin use and showed metabolic effects which differed by statin use and age. Among the youngest (38-53y, statins-5%), BMI and WHR (per-SD) increased LDL-C (total effects: 0.04-SD, 95%CI=-0.01,0.08 and 0.10-SD, 95%CI=0.02,0.17 respectively), but only WHR directly. Among the oldest (63-73y, statins-29%), BMI and WHR directly lowered LDL-C (-0.19-SD, 95%CI=-0.27,-0.11 and -0.05-SD, 95%CI=-0.16,0.06 respectively). Interpretation: Excess adiposity likely raises atherogenic lipid and metabolite levels exclusively via adiposity stored centrally, particularly among women. Apparent effects of adiposity on lowering LDL-C are likely explained by an effect of adiposity on statin use. Funding: UK Medical Research Council; British Heart Foundation; Novo Nordisk; National Institute for Health Research; Wellcome Trust; Cancer Research UK.

Changes in presentations with features potentially indicating cancer in primary care during the COVID-19 pandemic: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the number of people aged 50+ years presenting to primary care with features that could potentially indicate cancer, and to explore how reporting differed by patient characteristics and in face-to-face vs remote consultations. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective cohort study of general practitioner (GP), nurse and paramedic primary care consultations in 21 practices in South-West England covering 123 947 patients. The models compared potential cancer indicators reported in April-July 2019 with April-July 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Potential indicators of cancer were identified using code lists for symptoms, signs, test results and diagnoses listed in the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence suspected cancer referral guidance (NG12). RESULTS: During April-July 2019, 17% of registered patients aged 50+ years reported a potential cancer indicator in a consultation with a GP or nurse. During April-July 2020, this reduced to 11% (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.64, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.67, p<0.001). Reductions in potential cancer indicators were stable across age group, sex, ethnicity, index of multiple deprivation quintile and shielding status, but less marked in patients with mental health conditions than without (IRR 0.75, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.79, interaction p<0.001). Proportions of GP consultations with potential indicators of cancer reduced between 2019 and 2020 for face-to-face consultations (IRR 0.84, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.92, p<0.001) and increased for remote consultations (IRR 1.17, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.29, p=0.001), although it remained lower in remote consulting than face-to-face in April-July 2020. This difference was greater for nurse/paramedic consultations (face-to-face: IRR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.83, p=0.002; remote: IRR 1.60, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.333, p=0.014). CONCLUSION: The number of patients consulting with presentations that could potentially indicate cancer reduced during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Patients should be encouraged to continue contacting primary care for persistent signs and symptoms, and GPs and nurses should be encouraged to probe patients for further information during remote consulting, in the absence of non-verbal cues.

Associations of mortality with own blood pressure using son's blood pressure as an instrumental variable.

High systolic blood pressure (SBP) causes cardiovascular disease (CVD) and is associated with mortality from other causes, but conventional multivariably-adjusted results may be confounded. Here we used a son's SBP (>1 million Swedish men) as an instrumental variable for parental SBP and examined associations with parents' cause-specific mortality, avoiding reverse causation. The hazard ratio for CVD mortality per SD (10.80 mmHg) of SBP was 1.49 (95% CI: 1.43, 1.56); SBP was positively associated with coronary heart disease and stroke. SBP was also associated positively with all-cause, diabetes and kidney cancer mortality, and negatively with external causes. Negative associations with respiratory-related mortality were probably confounded by smoking. Hazard ratios for other causes were imprecise or null. Diastolic blood pressure gave similar results to SBP. CVD hazard ratios were intermediate between those from conventional multivariable studies and Mendelian randomization and stronger than those from clinical trials, approximately consistent with an effect of exposure duration on effect sizes. Plots of parental mortality against offspring SBP were approximately linear, supporting calls for lower SBP targets. Results suggest that conventional multivariable analyses of mortality and SBP are not substantially confounded by reverse causation and confirm positive effects of SBP on all-cause, CVD and diabetes mortality.

Instrumental variable methods for a binary outcome were used to informatively address noncompliance in a randomized trial in surgery.

OBJECTIVES: Randomization can be used as an instrumental variable (IV) to account for unmeasured confounding when seeking to assess the impact of noncompliance with treatment allocation in a randomized trial. We present and compare different methods to calculate the treatment effect on a binary outcome as a rate ratio in a randomized surgical trial. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The effectiveness of peeling versus not peeling the internal limiting membrane of the retina as part of the surgery for a full thickness macular hole. We compared the IV-based estimates (nonparametric causal bound and two-stage residual inclusion approach [2SRI]) with standard treatment effect measures (intention to treat, per protocol and treatment received [TR]). Compliance was defined in two ways (initial and up to the time point of interest). Poisson regression was used for the model-based approaches with robust standard errors to calculate the risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Results were similar for 1-month macular hole status across methods. For 3- and 6-month macular hole status, nonparametric causal bounds provided a narrower range of uncertainty than other methods, though still had substantial imprecision. For 3-month macular hole status, the TR estimate was substantially different from the other point estimates. CONCLUSION: Nonparametric causal bound approaches are a useful addition to an IV estimation approach, which tend to have large levels of uncertainty. Methods which allow RRs to be calculated when addressing noncompliance in randomized trials exist and may be superior to standard estimates. Further research is needed to explore the properties of different IV methods in a broad range of randomized controlled trial scenarios.

Education and coronary heart disease: mendelian randomisation study.

Objective To determine whether educational attainment is a causal risk factor in the development of coronary heart disease.Design Mendelian randomisation study, using genetic data as proxies for education to minimise confounding.Setting The main analysis used genetic data from two large consortia (CARDIoGRAMplusC4D and SSGAC), comprising 112 studies from predominantly high income countries. Findings from mendelian randomisation analyses were then compared against results from traditional observational studies (164 170 participants). Finally, genetic data from six additional consortia were analysed to investigate whether longer education can causally alter the common cardiovascular risk factors.Participants The main analysis was of 543 733 men and women (from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D and SSGAC), predominantly of European origin.Exposure A one standard deviation increase in the genetic predisposition towards higher education (3.6 years of additional schooling), measured by 162 genetic variants that have been previously associated with education.Main outcome measure Combined fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease (63 746 events in CARDIoGRAMplusC4D).Results Genetic predisposition towards 3.6 years of additional education was associated with a one third lower risk of coronary heart disease (odds ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.59 to 0.77; P=3×10-8). This was comparable to findings from traditional observational studies (prevalence odds ratio 0.73, 0.68 to 0.78; incidence odds ratio 0.80, 0.76 to 0.83). Sensitivity analyses were consistent with a causal interpretation in which major bias from genetic pleiotropy was unlikely, although this remains an untestable possibility. Genetic predisposition towards longer education was additionally associated with less smoking, lower body mass index, and a favourable blood lipid profile.Conclusions This mendelian randomisation study found support for the hypothesis that low education is a causal risk factor in the development of coronary heart disease. Potential mechanisms could include smoking, body mass index, and blood lipids. In conjunction with the results from studies with other designs, these findings suggest that increasing education may result in substantial health benefits.

Assessing the role of insulin-like growth factors and binding proteins in prostate cancer using Mendelian randomization: Genetic variants as instruments for circulating levels.

Circulating insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and their binding proteins (IGFBPs) are associated with prostate cancer. Using genetic variants as instruments for IGF peptides, we investigated whether these associations are likely to be causal. We identified from the literature 56 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the IGF axis previously associated with biomarker levels (8 from a genome-wide association study [GWAS] and 48 in reported candidate genes). In ∼700 men without prostate cancer and two replication cohorts (N ∼ 900 and ∼9,000), we examined the properties of these SNPS as instrumental variables (IVs) for IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3. Those confirmed as strong IVs were tested for association with prostate cancer risk, low (< 7) vs. high (≥ 7) Gleason grade, localised vs. advanced stage, and mortality, in 22,936 controls and 22,992 cases. IV analysis was used in an attempt to estimate the causal effect of circulating IGF peptides on prostate cancer. Published SNPs in the IGFBP1/IGFBP3 gene region, particularly rs11977526, were strong instruments for IGF-II and IGFBP-3, less so for IGF-I. Rs11977526 was associated with high (vs. low) Gleason grade (OR per IGF-II/IGFBP-3 level-raising allele 1.05; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.10). Using rs11977526 as an IV we estimated the causal effect of a one SD increase in IGF-II (∼265 ng/mL) on risk of high vs. low grade disease as 1.14 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.31). Because of the potential for pleiotropy of the genetic instruments, these findings can only causally implicate the IGF pathway in general, not any one specific biomarker.

Effect of smoking on physical and cognitive capability in later life: a multicohort study using observational and genetic approaches.

OBJECTIVES: The observed associations between smoking and functional measures at older ages are vulnerable to bias and confounding. Mendelian randomisation (MR) uses genotype as an instrumental variable to estimate unconfounded causal associations. We conducted a meta-analysis of the observational associations and implemented an MR approach using the smoking-related single nucleotide polymorphism rs16969968 to explore their causal nature. SETTING: 9 British cohorts belonging to the HALCyon collaboration. PARTICIPANTS: Individual participant data on N=26,692 individuals of European ancestry (N from earliest phase analysed per study) of mean ages 50-79 years were available for inclusion in observational meta-analyses of the primary outcomes. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Physical capability, cognitive capability and cognitive decline. The smoking exposures were cigarettes per day, current versus ex-smoker, current versus never smoker and ever versus never smoker. RESULTS: In observational analyses current and ever smoking were generally associated with poorer physical and cognitive capability. For example, current smokers had a general fluid cognition score which was 0.17 z-score units (95% CI -0.221 to -0.124) lower than ex-smokers in cross-sectional analyses. Current smokers had a walk speed which was 0.25 z-score units lower than never smokers (95% CI -0.338 to -0.170). An MR instrumental variable approach for current versus ex-smoker and number of cigarettes smoked per day produced CIs which neither confirmed nor refuted the observational estimates. The number of genetic associations stratified by smoking status were consistent with type I error. CONCLUSIONS: Our observational analysis supports the hypothesis that smoking is detrimental to physical and cognitive capability. Further studies are needed for a suitably powered MR approach.

A Mendelian Randomization Study of Circulating Uric Acid and Type 2 Diabetes.

We aimed to investigate the causal effect of circulating uric acid concentrations on type 2 diabetes risk. A Mendelian randomization study was performed using a genetic score with 24 uric acid-associated loci. We used data of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study, comprising 24,265 individuals of European ancestry from eight European countries. During a mean (SD) follow-up of 10 (4) years, 10,576 verified incident case subjects with type 2 diabetes were ascertained. Higher uric acid was associated with a higher diabetes risk after adjustment for confounders, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.20 (95% CI 1.11, 1.30) per 59.48 µmol/L (1 mg/dL) uric acid. The genetic score raised uric acid by 17 µmol/L (95% CI 15, 18) per SD increase and explained 4% of uric acid variation. By using the genetic score to estimate the unconfounded effect, we found that a 59.48 µmol/L higher uric acid concentration did not have a causal effect on diabetes (HR 1.01 [95% CI 0.87, 1.16]). Including data from the Diabetes Genetics Replication And Meta-analysis (DIAGRAM) consortium, increasing our dataset to 41,508 case subjects with diabetes, the summary odds ratio estimate was 0.99 (95% CI 0.92, 1.06). In conclusion, our study does not support a causal effect of circulating uric acid on diabetes risk. Uric acid-lowering therapies may therefore not be beneficial in reducing diabetes risk.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of candidate gene association studies of lower urinary tract symptoms in men.

CONTEXT: Although family studies have shown that male lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) are highly heritable, no systematic review exists of genetic polymorphisms tested for association with LUTS. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review and meta-analyze studies assessing candidate polymorphisms/genes tested for an association with LUTS, and to assess the strength, consistency, and potential for bias among pooled associations. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: A systematic search of the PubMed and HuGE databases as well as abstracts of major urologic meetings was performed through to January 2013. Case-control studies reporting genetic associations in men with LUTS were included. Reviewers independently and in duplicate screened titles, abstracts, and full texts to determine eligibility, abstracted data, and assessed the credibility of pooled associations according to the interim Venice criteria. Authors were contacted for clarifications if needed. Meta-analyses were performed for variants assessed in more than two studies. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: We identified 74 eligible studies containing data on 70 different genes. A total of 35 meta-analyses were performed with statistical significance in five (ACE, ELAC2, GSTM1, TERT, and VDR). The heterogeneity was high in three of these meta-analyses. The rs731236 variant of the vitamin D receptor had a protective effect for LUTS (odds ratio: 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.49-0.83) with moderate heterogeneity (I(2)=27.2%). No evidence for publication bias was identified. Limitations include wide-ranging phenotype definitions for LUTS and limited power in most meta-analyses to detect smaller effect sizes. CONCLUSIONS: Few putative genetic risk variants have been reliably replicated across populations. We found consistent evidence of a reduced risk of LUTS associated with the common rs731236 variant of the vitamin D receptor gene in our meta-analyses. PATIENT SUMMARY: Combining the results from all previous studies of genetic variants that may cause urinary symptoms in men, we found significant variants in five genes. Only one, a variant of the vitamin D receptor, was consistently protective across different populations.

Causal effects of body mass index on cardiometabolic traits and events: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

Elevated body mass index (BMI) associates with cardiometabolic traits on observational analysis, yet the underlying causal relationships remain unclear. We conducted Mendelian randomization analyses by using a genetic score (GS) comprising 14 BMI-associated SNPs from a recent discovery analysis to investigate the causal role of BMI in cardiometabolic traits and events. We used eight population-based cohorts, including 34,538 European-descent individuals (4,407 type 2 diabetes (T2D), 6,073 coronary heart disease (CHD), and 3,813 stroke cases). A 1 kg/m(2) genetically elevated BMI increased fasting glucose (0.18 mmol/l; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.12-0.24), fasting insulin (8.5%; 95% CI = 5.9-11.1), interleukin-6 (7.0%; 95% CI = 4.0-10.1), and systolic blood pressure (0.70 mmHg; 95% CI = 0.24-1.16) and reduced high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (-0.02 mmol/l; 95% CI = -0.03 to -0.01) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C; -0.04 mmol/l; 95% CI = -0.07 to -0.01). Observational and causal estimates were directionally concordant, except for LDL-C. A 1 kg/m(2) genetically elevated BMI increased the odds of T2D (odds ratio [OR] = 1.27; 95% CI = 1.18-1.36) but did not alter risk of CHD (OR 1.01; 95% CI = 0.94-1.08) or stroke (OR = 1.03; 95% CI = 0.95-1.12). A meta-analysis incorporating published studies reporting 27,465 CHD events in 219,423 individuals yielded a pooled OR of 1.04 (95% CI = 0.97-1.12) per 1 kg/m(2) increase in BMI. In conclusion, we identified causal effects of BMI on several cardiometabolic traits; however, whether BMI causally impacts CHD risk requires further evidence.

Associations of mortality with own height using son's height as an instrumental variable.

Height is associated with mortality from many diseases, but it remains unclear whether the association is causal or due to confounding by social factors, genetic pleiotropy,(1) or existing ill-health. The authors investigated whether the association of height with mortality is causal by using a son's height as an instrumental variable (IV) for parents' height among the parents of a cohort of 1,036,963 Swedish men born between 1951 and 1980 who had their height measured at military conscription, aged around 18, between 1969 and 2001. In a two-sample IV analysis adjusting for son's age at examination and secular trends in height, as well as parental age, and socioeconomic position, the hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause paternal mortality per standard deviation (SD, 6.49cm) of height was 0.96 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.95, 0.96). The results of IV analyses of mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, cancer, external causes and suicide were comparable to those obtained using son's height as a simple proxy for own height and to conventional analyses of own height in the present data and elsewhere, suggesting that such conventional analyses are not substantially confounded by existing ill-health.

Instrumental variable estimation of the causal effect of plasma 25-hydroxy-vitamin D on colorectal cancer risk: a mendelian randomization analysis.

Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with several common diseases, including cancer and is being investigated as a possible risk factor for these conditions. We reported the striking prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in Scotland. Previous epidemiological studies have reported an association between low dietary vitamin D and colorectal cancer (CRC). Using a case-control study design, we tested the association between plasma 25-hydroxy-vitamin D (25-OHD) and CRC (2,001 cases, 2,237 controls). To determine whether plasma 25-OHD levels are causally linked to CRC risk, we applied the control function instrumental variable (IV) method of the mendelian randomization (MR) approach using four single nucleotide polymorphisms (rs2282679, rs12785878, rs10741657, rs6013897) previously shown to be associated with plasma 25-OHD. Low plasma 25-OHD levels were associated with CRC risk in the crude model (odds ratio (OR): 0.76, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.71, 0.81, p: 1.4×10(-14)) and after adjusting for age, sex and other confounding factors. Using an allele score that combined all four SNPs as the IV, the estimated causal effect was OR 1.16 (95% CI 0.60, 2.23), whilst it was 0.94 (95% CI 0.46, 1.91) and 0.93 (0.53, 1.63) when using an upstream (rs12785878, rs10741657) and a downstream allele score (rs2282679, rs6013897), respectively. 25-OHD levels were inversely associated with CRC risk, in agreement with recent meta-analyses. The fact that this finding was not replicated when the MR approach was employed might be due to weak instruments, giving low power to demonstrate an effect (<0.35). The prevalence and degree of vitamin D deficiency amongst individuals living in northerly latitudes is of considerable importance because of its relationship to disease. To elucidate the effect of vitamin D on CRC cancer risk, additional large studies of vitamin D and CRC risk are required and/or the application of alternative methods that are less sensitive to weak instrument restrictions.

Association between genetic variants on chromosome 15q25 locus and objective measures of tobacco exposure.

BACKGROUND: Two single-nucleotide polymorphisms, rs1051730 and rs16969968, located within the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor gene cluster on chromosome 15q25 locus, are associated with heaviness of smoking, risk for lung cancer, and other smoking-related health outcomes. Previous studies have typically relied on self-reported smoking behavior, which may not fully capture interindividual variation in tobacco exposure. METHODS: We investigated the association of rs1051730 and rs16969968 genotype (referred to as rs1051730-rs16969968, because these are in perfect linkage disequilibrium and interchangeable) with both self-reported daily cigarette consumption and biochemically measured plasma or serum cotinine levels among cigarette smokers. Summary estimates and descriptive statistical data for 12 364 subjects were obtained from six independent studies, and 2932 smokers were included in the analyses. Linear regression was used to calculate the per-allele association of rs1051730-rs16969968 genotype with cigarette consumption and cotinine levels in current smokers for each study. Meta-analysis of per-allele associations was conducted using a random effects method. The likely resulting association between genotype and lung cancer risk was assessed using published data on the association between cotinine levels and lung cancer risk. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Pooled per-allele associations showed that current smokers with one or two copies of the rs1051730-rs16969968 risk allele had increased self-reported cigarette consumption (mean increase in unadjusted number of cigarettes per day per allele = 1.0 cigarette, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.57 to 1.43 cigarettes, P = 5.22 × 10(-6)) and cotinine levels (mean increase in unadjusted cotinine levels per allele = 138.72 nmol/L, 95% CI = 97.91 to 179.53 nmol/L, P = 2.71 × 10(-11)). The increase in cotinine levels indicated an increased risk of lung cancer with each additional copy of the rs1051730-rs16969968 risk allele (per-allele odds ratio = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.21 to 1.42). CONCLUSIONS: Our data show a stronger association of rs1051730-rs16969968 genotype with objective measures of tobacco exposure compared with self-reported cigarette consumption. The association of these variants with lung cancer risk is likely to be mediated largely, if not wholly, via tobacco exposure.

The causal roles of vitamin B(12) and transcobalamin in prostate cancer: can Mendelian randomization analysis provide definitive answers?

Circulating vitamin B(12) (cobalamin/B(12)) and total transcobalamin (tTC) have been associated with increased and reduced risk, respectively, of prostate cancer. Mendelian randomization has the potential to determine whether these are causal associations. We estimated associations of single nucleotide polymorphisms in B(12)-related genes (MTR, MTRR, FUT2, TCN2, TCN1, CUBN, and MUT) with plasma concentrations of B(12), tTC, holo-transcobalamin, holo-haptocorrin, folate, and homocysteine and with prostate cancer risk in a case-control study (913 cases, 895 controls) nested within the UK-wide population-based ProtecT study of prostate cancer in men age 45-69 years. Instrumental variable (IV) analysis was used to estimate odds ratios for effects of B(12) and tTC on prostate cancer. We observed that B(12) was lower in men with FUT2 204G>A (rs492602), CUBN 758C>T (rs1801222) and MUT 1595G>A (rs1141321) alleles (P(trend)<0.001); tTC was lower in men with the TCN2 776C>G (rs1801198) allele (P(trend)<0.001). FUT2 204G>A and CUBN 758C>T were selected as instruments for B(12); TCN2 776C>G for tTC. Conventional and IV estimates for the association of log(e)(B(12)) with prostate cancer were: OR=1.17 (95% CI 0.90-1.51), P=0.2 and OR=0.60 (0.16-2.15), P=0.4, respectively. Conventional and IV estimates for the association of loge(tTC) with prostate cancer were: OR=0.81 (0.54-1.20), P=0.3 and OR=0.41 (0.13-1.32), P=0.1, respectively. Confidence intervals around the IV estimates in our study were too wide to allow robust inference. Sample size estimates based on our data indicated that Mendelian randomization in this context requires much larger studies or multiple genetic variants that explain all of the variance in the intermediate phenotype.

Smoking is associated with, but does not cause, depressed mood in pregnancy--a mendelian randomization study.

Smokers have a higher prevalence of major depressive episodes and depressive symptoms than the general population, but whether this association is causal, or is due to confounding or reverse causation is uncertain because of the problems inherent in some epidemiological studies. Mendelian randomization, in which a genetic variant is used as a surrogate for measuring exposure, is an approach which may be used to better understand this association. We investigated the rs1051730 single nucleotide polymorphism in the nicotine acetylcholine receptor gene cluster (CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4), associated with smoking phenotypes, to determine whether women who continued to smoke were also more likely to report a low mood during pregnancy. We found among women who smoked pre-pregnancy, those with the 1051730 T allele smoked more and were less likely to quit smoking during pregnancy, but were also less likely to report high levels of depressed mood at 18 weeks of pregnancy (per allele OR = 0.84, 95%CI 0.72 to 0.99, p = 0.034). The association between genotype and depressed mood was limited to women who were smokers prior to pregnancy, with weak evidence of an interaction between smoking status and genotype (p = 0.07). Our results do not support a causal role of smoking on depressed mood, but are consistent with a self-medication hypothesis, whereby smoking is used to alleviate symptoms of depression. A replication study using multiple genetic variants which influence smoking via different pathways is required to confirm these findings and provide evidence that the genetic variant is reflecting the effect of quitting smoking on depressed mood, and is not directly affecting mood.

Associations between an obesity related genetic variant (FTO rs9939609) and prostate cancer risk.

UNLABELLED: Observational studies suggest that obese men have a lower risk of incident prostate cancer, but an increased risk of advanced and fatal cancers. These observations could be due to confounding, detection bias, or a biological effect of obesity. Genetic studies are less susceptible to confounding than observational epidemiology and can suggest how associations between phenotypes (such as obesity) and diseases arise. To determine whether the associations between obesity and prostate cancer are causal, we conducted a genetic association study of the relationship between a single nucleotide polymorphism known to be associated with obesity (FTO rs9939609) and prostate cancer. Data are from a population-based sample of 1550 screen-detected prostate cancers, 1815 age- and general practice matched controls with unrestricted prostate specific antigen (PSA) values and 1175 low-PSA controls (PSA <0.5 ng/ml). The rs9939609 A allele, which was associated with higher BMI in the sample, was inversely associated with overall (odds ratio (OR) versus all controls  = 0.93; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.85-1.02 p = 0.12 per allele) and low-grade (OR = 0.90; 0.81-0.99 p = 0.03 per allele) prostate cancer risk, but positively associated with high-grade cancer among cases (OR high- versus low-grade cancer  = 1.16; 0.99-1.37 p = 0.07 per allele). Although evidence for these effects was weak, they are consistent with observational data based on BMI phenotypes and suggest that the observed association between obesity and prostate cancer is not due to confounding. Further research should confirm these findings, extend them to other BMI-related genetic variants and determine whether they are due to detection bias or obesity-related hormonal changes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN20141297.